V O L U M E 8 , D O C U M E N T 5 3 3 a 9 9
Tell Besso he should ask for the story. I’m curious if he finds the same fly in the
ointment as I do. At the Academy there were a couple of droll scenes about the pa-
per, about which I’ll tell both of you
A satisfactory relationship has formed between me and my wife, namely
through the correspondence I am conducting with her about the
ny opportunity indeed for reconciliation. I am currently trying to obtain the permis-
sion to give her my savings and send them to Switzerland. Up to now I have not
been able to carry it through at the
Together with two large prizes
I recently received, it is 40,000
You are certainly laughing at my telling
you this with a certain pride; but for my children it does mean something not to be
quite so dependent on friends in the event of my
I experienced that
Cordial greetings from your old
wasn’t able to attach any meaning to the first two and a half lines.
Any judgment about probability W of complex events is based on certain set pre-
mises about probability w of elementary primitive events, From these premises
probabilities out of which the more complex ones are composed. The link between
the W’s and w’s is made according to certain rules that probability calculus chooses
in order for it to be advantageously applicable to as many series of observations as
The same probability for the 6 throws of a die has logically nothing to do with
the impossibility of preferring one such throw over the others.
The statement about equal probability of two events has nothing to do with the
statement about the independence of events from each another. One can be valid
without the other.
Probability considerations and causal considerations may indeed be mutually
exclusive, but in nature the causal connection, even if it is unbroken, allows room
for probability considerations. This comes from the fact that it is often not possible
nor intended to completely deduce the causal relations.
We don’t know whether the demand for strict ordering of observational facts ac-
cording to cause and effect is satisfiable, and we shall never know for certain. In
practice we have to dispense with it in almost all areas, because a certain and full
drawing of the causal chain almost always exceeds our abilities.
Hitch: Rationally defined probability intrinsically does not permit application.
Structure of the theory, setting out from the empirical definition of probability, runs
up against major obstacles.